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Author: I. A. Gundarov, MD, PhD, Professor, Chairman of the Council of the Regional Public Organization for the Protection of Human Rights, Health and Well-being, Professor of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations. SPIN-code: 1147-8716, AuthorID: 501792, publication date: 20.03.2021.
The peculiarity of the COVID-19 infection outbreak is the inconsistency of theoretical explanations,e chaos of managerial decisions, and the deterioration of the living conditions of the majority of the population. In this matter, world science proceeds from the hypothesis of the "three H". It is believed that SARS-COV-2 is a New coronavirus that accidentally appeared at the end of December 2019 in the city of Wuhan (China). It infected patient Zero – a local resident who ate contaminated seafood from a local market. From him went a continuous wave of morbidity around the world, which can only be stopped by total quarantine or universal vaccination. The emergence of new strains of SARS-COV makes the threat of a pandemic endless. However, the facts accumulated over the past time cast doubt on this hypothesis.
The first patients with covid pneumonia appeared, according to WHO experts, not in Wuhan, but in September 2019 in the United States. In December 2019, Parisians with pneumonia were retrospectively diagnosed with coronavirus. At the same time, there was a wave of severe pneumonia in Russia, especially pronounced in the Vladimir, Samara, Orenburg regions, in the cities of Moscow, Krasnoyarsk, etc. Similar waves raged in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, interpreted as the flu. In addition, Chinese scientists did not find traces of SARS-COV-2 in the samples of products sold on the market at that time. As for the test kits for the diagnosis of COVID-19, they were massively sold already in 2017.
The theory of patient zero does not explain the synchronicity of mass covid outbreaks in separated isolated territories. Moreover – in closed military contingents with strict observance of anti-epidemic regimes: in the St. Petersburg Military Medical Academy named after S. M. Kirov, in the Tyumen Higher Military Engineering Command School, etc. Hundreds of coronavirus patients were suddenly discovered on the American aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. Then-on three more American aircraft carriers. At the same time, hundreds of infected sailors appeared on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, although the port call occurred two incubation periods ago. According to the Chinese Foreign Minister, the emergence of covid-patients in the country occurred immediately in different territories.
The continuity of the increase in the pandemic is refuted by the materials of Johns Hopkins University. The spread of newly detected covid infections (two or more cases) did not occur continuously in the countries of the world, but in two waves - in January and in March, separated by the February incubation period (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Groups of countries with newly identified covid patients in January and March, separated by the February incubation period.
An ecological hypothesis is proposed to explain the paradoxes. Ecology is the science of the interaction of living communities between themselves and the environment. Biogeocenoses are formed that obey the internal mechanisms of functioning. The development of this topic in the Soviet years was carried out by the Institute of Ecology and Evolution named after A. N. Severtsev (Moscow), the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology (Sverdlovsk), the Institute of Fundamental Medicine and Biology (Kazan). Here, the COVID-19 outbreak may not be an accident, but an environmental pattern that manifests itself in cyclical waves. Doctors are well aware of the seasonal undulation of respiratory diseases. At the same time, it is not clear what the nature of these waves is, do they appear chaotically or in a certain rhythm, in what quantity, etc.? Outside the waves, viruses and acute respiratory infections disappear or continue to act?
To study the issues, the dynamics of respiratory infection in Russia over the past five years (2015-2020) was studied. Monthly mortality from pneumonia with accurate, difficult-to-falsify clinical indicators was taken into account. The materials of Rosstat were used. When studying annual processes according to the Julian calendar, January is considered the initial month. In this case, the trajectory of the five-year average mortality from pneumonia had a chaotic appearance (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. Dynamics of the averaged mortality from pneumonia in Russia for 2016-19, considered according to the Julian calendar.
In contrast to the subjective Julian approach, the Slavic peoples and the Greeks relied on objective annual criteria. The beginning was the summer solstice on June 21, and the first month of the year was July. With this sequence, a cycle of three-wave mortality from pneumonia is detected with peaks: 1 – in October, 2 - in January, 3 - in March (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3. Dynamics of the averaged mortality from pneumonia in Russia for 2016-19 according to the astrological calendar.
There is also a fourth wave, but with a negative peak of minimal mortality in June (Fig. 1).
When analyzed separately by years, the peaks of annual waves are clearly detected in the same months (Fig. 4). The shapes and amplitudes of the waves may differ. The first wave at the end of September is the lowest of all. The second and third waves can be correlated in different ways: the second is higher than the third (2016-17; 2018-19) or the third is higher than the second (2017-18). The trajectory of 2015-16 was particularly distinguished – high rises and no decline in February. The reason for the atypical nature was the "swine flu" pandemic that was raging around the world and in Russia at that time.
Fig. 4. Synchronicity of peaks of monthly mortality from pneumonia in Russia for 2015-19
When tracking the dynamics of waves over the years, their gradual decrease is revealed (Fig. 5). The greatest mortality was observed in 2015-2016 during the "swine flu". Although there were no special anti-epidemic measures then. But with the coronavirus in 2019-2020, the mortality rate was the lowest, accompanied by panic behavior.
Fig. 5. Dynamics of the amplitudes of the waves of mortality from pneumonia in Russia for 2016-20
It was found that in the inter-wave periods, mortality from acute respiratory infections does not disappear. In the total volume of losses, the share of waves is only 20%, and 80% are accounted for by basic mortality (Fig. 6). And the viruses do not disappear, but continue to actively circulate. Therefore, it is possible to get sick with acute respiratory infections and die from influenza pneumonia in June. On this basis, the "basic wave theory" of respiratory morbidity was formed..
Fig. 6. The ratio of basic and wave mortality from pneumonia in Russia in 2015-20
The basic wave theory corresponds to the doctrine of the ubiquitarity of viruses. Ubiquity (ubique – everywhere) indicates the ubiquitous spread of viruses in nature. Most of the time, they function as relative saprophytes – a healthy virus carrier. An example is the carrier of the herpes virus, which is present in almost everyone. Basic cohabitation is interrupted by cyclical exacerbations, the causes of which are poorly understood. It is customary to explain them by cooling the surrounding air. The body does not have time to adapt, and the infection finds weak points. But in November, the temperature is usually lower than in October, and the mortality rate decreases. In March, the temperature rises, and the death rate increases.
The explanation of the riddles is given by the coincidence of the peaks of mortality with geocosmic boundaries: the summer solstice on June 21, the autumn equinox on September 23, the winter solstice on December 22, the spring equinox on March 20. It is quite possible that the Earth orbiting the Sun passes through some cosmic wave flows at these intervals. They affect the viral activity – the number of circulating elements, the energy of attachment to cellular receptors, etc. The immune resistance of the body is also changing. The study of the influence of astrophysical factors on wildlife is devoted to the works of A. Chizhevsky, V. Vernadsky, L. Gumilev, V. Kaznacheyev, etc. Here, mass morbidity occurs not only by the transmission of infection from one person to another, but also by the simultaneous appearance of cases in remote territories. Ignoring this pattern led to the fact that the seasonal outbreak of acute respiratory infections in 2020 was mistaken for something new and terrible.
CONCLUSIONS:
The detection of annual waves of mortality from acute respiratory infections with a cosmological cause eliminates the panic state of uncertainty, contributing to the restoration of the mental health of mankind.
The hope for an isolation policy in the fight against seasonal infections appears utopian. Their outbreaks are inevitable regardless of the presence or absence of quarantine measures, obeying the cosmic cycle.
The attachment of mortality waves to certain boundaries will allow us to focus preventive efforts on specific intervals: taking general tonic drugs, reserving beds for infectious patients, etc.
The pathogenicity of the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus turned out to be the weakest in comparison with the ARI waves of previous years. Standard preventive restrictions are sufficient to combat it.
The low virulence of COVID-19 makes mass vaccination of the population irrelevant, especially with a vaccine that has not been thoroughly tested for effectiveness and safety.
A broad discussion of the cosmic nature of ARI cycles will help to stop the increase in the humanitarian catastrophe and the pandemic of coronavirus psychosis.